A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
